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Possible UK scenarios
The weakness of Ms. May and the Conservative party can surely lead to a Labour victory in any snap election – but the UK has no time, not even for a quick election.
This may keep hardline Tory Brexit backbenchers from taking Ms. May down, even if the now resigned Brexiteers should push for it. But logic thinking is not the strong side of the Brexit-movement. Also possible is, that Brexit Tories will push for a Party leadership-change without calling for general elections – trying to replace Ms. May with Mr. Rees-Mogg, Mr. Johnson or a similar hardline character. All this is possible, but not the very most likely.
Mr. Davis and Mr. Johnson have lost face – but Ms. May has not gained strength, and ominously, Ms. May could not find any high-profile politicians to replace these two ministers, whose resignation was expected to come.
Most likely road to chaos for the UK
The most likely scenario is that Ms. May will stay, and she will try to paddle through a short time with her delusionary “Brexit-plan”, which has no definite content – and soon, Ms. May will hit the EU Iceberg.
When Titanic May hits the Iceberg, the UK may likely already later in 2018 run into one of the worst thinkable situations at the moment: A “no-deal” Brexit – real-life prospects of the UK society coming to a paralysis, a stand-still – constitutional crises with Scotland and Northern Ireland – London government disintegration – and chaotic snap elections.
When a moral, legal, economic and physical chaos of a type never seen before in history descends on the UK for real, many die-hard Brexiteers will remain unmoved… but a few UK opinions may change in one or two other corners.
Labour may win a chaos-election, declared maybe 2018, carried out early 2019, on a ticket to say either stay in the Customs Union, and even run a new Brexit-vote to reverse the “Leave” decision. Mr. Cameron may even return as Tory leader with the same ticket: Stay in the Customs Union, or even reverse the Brexit-vote.
Scotland and Northern Ireland may win big-time if they play hard in a likely scenario – which means that the EU in the future will be even stronger in relation not just to member-states, but also as a supporter of self-governing parts inside member-states.
EU wins – every time
In a long range of EU “crises” (Euro, Brexit, 5-Star etc.etc.), the doom of the EU has been pronounced. Every time, the EU comes out even stronger.
The EU is needed – each time Europe at large realizes the consequences of it falling apart, they prefer to strengthen it.
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Karsten Riise is Master of Science (Econ) from Copenhagen Business School and has university degree in Spanish Culture and Languages from University of Copenhagen. Former senior Vice President Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Mercedes-Benz in Denmark and Sweden with a responsibility of US Dollars 1 billion. At time of appointment, the youngest and the first non-German in that top-position within Mercedes-Benz’ worldwide sales organization.
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