by Simplicius
In a turn of events that stunned the commentariat, the Russian MOD has officially announced that Russia will continue striking Kiev in a new ‘systematic’ campaign of hitting military-industrial enterprises and ‘decision-making centers’. Russia even sent advanced warning to all Western diplomatic missions and foreign citizens to evacuate Kiev, inciting frenzies of doom-making in the pro-UA crowd.
Official account:
The problem with the announcement is that most are unduly blowing it way out of proportion owing to an exaggerated FighterBomber post which said that “Kiev will be destroyed.” FighterBomber was simply being figurative—he is not speaking in any official capacity. But it has lit a firestorm of responses from both sides, with pro-Russians jubilating with glee, and pro-Ukrainians condemning Russia as genocidal barbarians.
As stated, FighterBomber simply means Kiev may be harder hit than usual, but in reality there is nothing whatsoever yet to suggest Russia will do anything over the top to Kiev. The customary legalistic Russian warning for evacuations is simply to cover its bases in the international community’s eyes. Are we actually going to see attacks against Bankova, the Verkhovna Rada, etc.? This is unlikely, because if Russia wanted to hit them it could have already done so directly last night on the first major attack of this new “systematic” cycle in order to “surprise” and overwhelm the actual political leadership inhabiting these places—but who knows, ultimately anything is possible.
The more interesting angle to these developments is what we touched on last time. That these appear to be part of a potential expansion of the war if recent Ukrainian rumors prove true.
Recall that Zelensky continues to claim that Russia is preparing a new drive on Kiev from the north, either the Belarus or Bryansk direction. And now they are even claiming that Russia is preparing for a new mobilization potentially for this very objective:
The above article claims that Russians have been receiving “mobilization orders”, which does not mean they are being mobilized but rather:
A mobilization order is issued based on a decision by the municipal draft board. It contains instructions on what the citizen must do in the event of mobilization: where and when to report, and what to bring with them. The order is usually pasted or inserted into the military ID card.
This could be an entirely fake report, or even tied to the already known ‘quiet’ mobilization that Russia has been doing this year to call up additional territorial drone defense units for the role of shooting down the increasingly numerous Ukrainian drone attacks to Russia’s deep rear.
Either way, various unsourced reports continue streaming out along these lines:
Interestingly, Zelensky even said that Ukraine could be forced to “act preemptively” if it detects a threat from that direction:
BREAKING: Zelensky Threatens Lukashenko With Military Response
“We have the ability to act preemptively against the de facto leadership of Belarus, which must stay on alert — meaning they must truly feel that there will be consequences if aggressive actions are taken against Ukraine and our people,” the Ukrainian president said.
This clearly implies that it could be Ukraine looking for the false pretense to make an attempt at dragging Belarus and Europe into a wider war in order to save itself.
But, is it possible that perhaps Russia is looking to finally escalate the war in a way that could change the calculus once and for all? It does appear to be oddly ‘coincidental’ that these rumors of a new operation from the north into Kiev happen to coincide with Russia’s own announcement that a new systematic measure of wasting Kiev’s decision-making centers and HQs.
This is also augmented by Russia’s sudden new targeting of Ukrainian water treatment plants, at least according to UA sources, as reported on last time.
Could it be that Russia intends to paralyze Kiev and then launch a long-awaited operation from the north toward the debilitated city? Most likely not. But you must admit that the preponderance of developments in this direction at least gives the semblance of such a potential plan.
The likelihood remains that most of what we hear is intentional disinformation from the West meant to give Ukraine leverage of some kind, but anything is possible.
One thing that will give us strong hints as to the true direction Russia will take will be the intensity of the upcoming promised strikes. If Russia really whales on Kiev in a major way, striking real decision-making centers like the president’s office on Bankova or the Verkhovna Rada, then we will understand that Putin’s serious about a true escalation beyond the usual performative antics. But if the strikes target forgettable secondary HQs, then perhaps we’ll know the calculus has not been changed to any serious effect, which would lessen the chances of any other ancillary action like major invasions from the north.
The simple fact that attacks on the decision-making centers was announced well in advance to give time for those ‘decision-makers’ themselves to take cover is probably revealing in this regard. At the same time, it seems unprecedented for Russia to warn diplomatic missions to evacuate Kiev, which would seem to imply major coming attacks in the very city center around Bankova and the Independence Square where most such diplomatic missions would presumably be clustered.
We must consider the plausible scenario that such a prolonged campaign of strikes may simply be another way for Russia to cool rising domestic frustration at the war’s direction, particularly in light of heightened Ukrainian attacks on Russian economic infrastructure, the shutting of civilian airports around Moscow and attendant inconveniences, etc.
But again, all these questions will be answered when we see the intensity of these planned Russian strikes, and what targets they actually hit.
Either way, the situation has been growing worse for Ukraine on the front of late, with Russia finally making several key advances, particularly in the east Zaporozhye region and around the Konstantinovka-Kramatorsk axis. This is why Ukraine and its sponsor-enablers have again launched into a full-throated information op to paint Russia as the one facing a major change of fortunes, despite the fact that Ukraine’s own battlefield bean-counters continue to show Ukraine taking heavier daily material losses than Russia.
Now we will just have to wait and see how Russia’s newly-announced Kiev-strike campaign will potentially change things.
Share your thoughts.
Bonus video:
Ukraine has been entombing its 330 kV power transformers in huge anti-drone and anti-missile sarcophagi. But here is how Russian fiber-optic drones have been “threading the needle” in taking them out by deftly passing through the obstacles to the main transformer rooms themselves:
Sumy sector
Master filigree work of Russian fiber optic drone operators who navigate through the high voltage power maze and manage to hit the main transformer unit.
“Let there be light,” said the pilot and punctured the transformer.
The fiber-optic FPV drone “KVN” strikes the 330/110/10 kV auto-transformer inside the hastily constructed sarcophagus at the “Sumy-Severnaya” 330 kV substation.
The FPV drone operator ignores targets in the form of construction equipment, rushing after the main prize and hitting electrical equipment, the equivalent value of which is estimated at hundreds of millions of rubles.Objective control data confirm the target hit.
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