“U.S. Banks are facing some $600 billion of unrealized losses, roughly 25% of total banking capital, near the highest levels in history.” – Automatic Earth
The U.S. banking system and likely, the global banking system, is essentially bankrupt. They just won’t admit it and central bankers won’t let them admit it. These “brilliant” Harvard Business School and Wharton trained financial geniuses thought it was a great idea to load up their institutions with mortgage and Treasury bonds when they were paying 0.5%. Now the ten year Treasury is 4.58%. Even a dolt like AOC or Pelosi should know bonds lose value when rates go up.
So here we are with banks almost $600 billion underwater in their bond holdings, waiting for our next Minsky Moment. Those living in a fantasy world of no consequences aren’t worried, because these banks don’t have to realize these losses unless they sell.
After re-watching The Big Short last week, I realized we are about to see history rhyme. There was an interminable period prior to the 2008 financial crash where the Wall Street cabal, government bureaucrats, central bankers, rating agencies, home buyers, and stock investors all pretended everything was fine. As the toxic fraudulent mortgages began to default because Mexican migrant workers and topless dancers couldn’t make the payments on their $500,000 mortgages, the banks actually marked their CDO and CLO weapons of mass financial destruction up in price. They were going to keep on dancing until the music ended. Extend and pretend kept the good times rolling. Until it didn’t.
Once the wrong grain of sand falls on the weakest part of the sand pile we call our financial system, the collapse will commence. Once the losses start to mount, these Wall Street banks will be forced to sell in order to generate liquidity. I know it’s coming. You know it’s coming. They know it’s coming. It’s just a matter of when. The Fed’s balance sheet will be doubled again in a fruitless effort to save their corrupt system once more.
We are in the waning years of this Fourth Turning. This will not be resolved peacefully or by kicking the can down the road once again. We are about to reap what Washington and Wall Street have sown since 2008.
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