Political Forecasts – Macron in Trouble – Armstrong

by Martin Armstrong

Our computer’s political forecasts do not rely on polls. What is most interesting is that when you correlate the economy with politics, you get to see the major swings coming like never before. As I have said, our model has been showing that the 2024 election in the USA should be won by Trump. The Democrats will most likely draft Hillary to try to defeat this correlation whereby Biden would lose, and our computer interest had forecast back in 2020 that whoever won the 2020 election would not finish out the term. I had been concerned that if Trump won 2020, what was the computer forecasting – he would die in office or be assassinated? But the election was cleverly rigged in Congress itself with the help of the Deep State because Trump was anti-war. The previous anti-war president was Kennedy, and we all know what the CIA did back then.


The June 23, 1972, tape from the Watergate Affair was hailed as the incontrovertible evidence that Nixon had obstructed justice. The last vestige of support for Nixon on Capitol Hill evaporated. Two weeks later, on Aug. 8, 1974, Nixon resigned. Why did Congress and the Deep State abandon Nixon? Because while the tape dealt with obstruction of justice, it was a threat to the CIA that Nixon knew who killed JFK – the CIA. Nixon made ominous threats that reeked of unspoken crimes to the head of the CIA that had employed four of the seven burglars. For the next 50 years,  people have looked at this evidence, and historians have pondered the June 23 tape as a Rosetta Stone of the JFK assassination. Nixon basically threatened to expose the “hanky panky” and “the whole Bay of Pigs thing.” What story was going to “blow” if the CIA didn’t cooperate?

1972 Presidential Election ForecastA long-overlooked White House tape provides the answers—the “hanky panky” referred to CIA assassination operations in the early 1960s. The “whole Bay of Pigs thing” was the Agency’s reaction to its most humiliating defeat. And the story that might blow was the connection between those events and the assassination of JFK. Nixon was taken down and had to be discredited to protect the “hanky panky” that took place behind the scenes. The Watergate burglars were ex-CIA. Many wonder if they took down Nixon for daring to threaten them. The 1972 election had 520 Electoral votes for Nixon vs. 17 for McGovern. Nixon came in at 60.7% of the popular vote compared to 37.5% for McGovern. Our political model had forecast 61% and 62% for Nixon on two models. But then, too, it suggested that Nixon would not finish out his term. Nevertheless, 4 out of six models point to a Nixon victory.

France_Marine_Le_PenMarine Le Pen’s National Rally was leading in the first round of parliamentary elections across France on Sunday. Based on early projections, her party is now one step closer to its goal of winning control of the National Assembly and taking the reins of government. Her National Rally and its allies appear to have won 34% of first-round votes, while the New Popular Front, a coalition of leftist parties, garnered 30% of ballots. President Emmanuel Macron’s warmongering party and its allies were heading for a third-place finish with 22% of the vote.

Macron’s presidential term ends in 2027. Macron placed a huge bet on this snap election. He wrongly expected to edge out leftist parties in the first round and force their voters to rally around his party for the runoff and thus defeat Le Pen’s National Rally. Macron does not understand politics. His strategy has backfired coming in third-place which means many of his candidates might miss runoff races altogether.

Le Pen and her allies, meanwhile, are within striking distance of a 289-seat majority in the National Assembly that would compel Macron to select a prime minister from her ranks. Le Pen has said she wants her protégé, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, to run the government if National Rally captures a majority in the lower house of parliament.

The major political issue has been the rising cost of living. Macron fails to comprehend that his posturing to lead Europe and send troops to Ukraine will only drive inflation substantially higher in France. The cost of the sanctions against Russia has been devasting to inflation combined with the insane response to COVID with lockdowns. Leaders like Macron do not look at the costs of their chest beating in geopolitical posturing.


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