I am a visual thinker, and I love maps and charts, so I just put this one together. In my opinion, we are moving from peacetime economic trade war conditions to a quazi-kinetic war for the control of the critical natural resources that are needed by the major powers in our emerging multipolar world.
So, just what in the Sam Hill is a quazi-war?
Well, it turns out that we already fought one. Read about it at the link.
Today, the unipolar world which followed the end of the cold war is coming to an end. It’s being replaced by a tri-polar world if you count the three greatest military powers: the USA, Russia and China. Or, it’s a bipolar world if you consider it to be a contest between the USA and its allies, and the emerging BRICS bloc.
In my humble opinion, (news flash), the US naval fleet currently assembled in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific is not actually about stopping drug boats. It’s about securing the largest oil reserve in the world for U.S. refineries. It’s also a message to Russia and China that the USA is exerting a new economic Monroe Doctrine, with the Americas in our zone of control.
I’m also wondering about the timing of our recent attacks on the Muslim terror camps in northern Nigeria. The Christians have been enduring massacres in Nigeria for over a decade, and now we are suddenly taking notice. Maybe it’s just a coincidence. Maybe not. In any event, both with the Caribbean and Pacific drug boats, the recent attack on the alleged Venezuelan drug port, and the recent attacks inside Nigeria, America is flexing its kinetic muscles and putting our adversaries on notice. I’m not cheering on this development, I’m just noting it as a fact.
The high-grade oil reserves in Nigeria are offshore and coastal, so securing them would not require taking control of the entire country. A defense cooperation agreement with the national government will be sufficient.
Or, other old ethnic conflicts could be stirred up, and the USA would take the side of the coastal tribes to control the oil. Does anybody remember “Biafra,” and the secessionist war in Nigeria from 1967 to 1970? Overlay the “Biafra” map, and Nigeria’s oil fields.
As you can see on the map below, it’s a much shorter voyage from Nigeria to Texas than from the Persian Gulf, and there are no choke points to impede tanker traffic. The US Navy is capable of exerting control over this route.
And choke points are key terrain, and easily blocked by modern weapons, as demonstrated by the third-tier Houthi rebels who were until recently firing drones and missiles at ships on the the Red Sea. Even the U.S. Navy, including aircraft carriers, could not prevent the Houthis from launching attacks against shipping during the Gaza conflict. Relatively inexpensive drones and missiles costing around $100,000 dollars each required the launching of several million dollars worth of air defense missiles, quickly depleting U.S. naval stocks.
The “math” simply does not work today for keeping choke points open to shipping against the wishes of littoral adversaries, who may be pawns in proxy wars. This equation could apply to the Strait of Malacca and other choke points in the future.
Shifting to Asia, since the end of WW2 the USA has relied on the “Island Chain Strategy” to contain China. That strategy is now under great stress, as Chinese naval power grows, and all American bases as far as Guam and beyond are in Chinese missile range.
At the present time and going forward, it’s doubtful that the US Navy would be able to break a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, for example. Our ships would be in Chinese missile salvo range long before they approached Taiwan. The long-term security of our bases in Japan and Korea is also doubtful.
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be no cakewalk, as a comparison to the U.S. military invasion of Okinawa in 1945 clearly shows. China would much prefer to absorb Taiwan over the long term, in the manner of Hong Kong.
But as quazi-kinetic sea blockades emerge, beginning with the seizure of US-sanctioned oil tankers destined for China, I believe that we will see a quazi-blockade of Taiwan slowly emerge.
Today, China is conducting naval and air force blockade drills all around Taiwan. Pressure will be met with pressure in contested areas, while staying below the threshold of outright kinetic war.
Chilling map sparks WW3 fears as China launch military drills cutting Taiwan off
Naval attacks against Russian shipping have taken place outside of the Ukraine-Russia conflict area. Anybody who believes that “Ukraine” struck this tanker is a fool or a liar. This was a British or American attack, pure and simple. (IMHO.)
RUSSIAN SHIP SINKING STORY LINK
As long as plausible deniability can be maintained, (as with the Nord Stream sabotage), attacks at sea will continue, and spread to other conflict zones. Anybody who thinks that “Ukrainian scuba divers from a chartered German sailboat” blew up the pipeline is a fool. Photo montage story below.
President Trump’s stated intention to annex or purchase Greenland is part of the ongoing global realignment into spheres of control. Trump recently stated this:
“We need Greenland for national security,” Trump said on Dec. 22, “You look up and down the coast, you have Russian and Chinese ships all over the place. We need it for national security. We have to have it.”
Trump has repeatedly returned to national security as a reason for wanting Greenland. The island’s location could also be strategic for a U.S. ballistic missile warning system.
The island also has critical minerals used in industries where China has a near-monopoly power. Greenland has mineral deposits of key minerals including graphite, copper, nickel, zinc, tungsten and lithium, all used for making modern technology.
However, Greenland currently does little to no mining. Trump also said he is not interested in Greenland for its mineral wealth.
“We have so many sites for minerals, and oil and everything, we have more oil than any other country in the world,” Trump said.
I wrote a Substack article about Greenland last year.
Many experts are now saying that a global war for silver has begun, with silver rivaling oil in importance to modern industrial economies.
China is the #1 producer of silver, but it still doesn’t have enough for its own internal industrial needs. Mexico and Peru are the other two major producers of silver.
Using the Venezuela model, and extrapolating forward, it’s not hard to see a situation where silver ore (doré) currently being shipped from Mexico and Peru to China is instead diverted to the USA.
A variety of U.S. “sanctions” may be contrived as needed to justify boarding and seizing these silver ore ships. The risk and hassle of confronting the US Navy in its backyard may be enough reason for the mine owners to shift their silver ore shipments to the United States instead of to China.
So as we launch into 2026, please keep all these geographical considerations in mind. The global struggle for critical resources like petroleum and silver may be shifting from economic to kinetic warfare.
Bracken—Out.
If you want to obtain my novels in Kindle or Audible formats, you’ll have to go to Amazon. Here’s my author page.
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