We’re “At The Beginning Of The Credit Destruction Cycle”; Ed Dowd Warns

Former Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned in September we were at the “Beginning of Panic Rate Cut Cycle.” Since that prediction, the Fed has cut interest rates three times. Looks like Dowd called it correctly.

So, when does the panic kick in? Dowd says, “The panic kicks in when there is some sort of banking wobble or stock market wobble, which is in the process of setting up…”

“Private credit is the first to show problems. We had Tricolor Holdings (subprime auto lending bankruptcy) go poof. We had First Brands (bankruptcy) go poof. This is all private credit. We have had other lenders like PrimaLend (bankruptcy) starting to go poof. Private credit is just like subprime. It not a very big part of the Jenga credit chain, but it’s enough to start a daisy chain of knock-on effects.

So, this is where we are, at the beginning of the credit destruction cycle. We are seeing consumer credit card delinquencies nearing all-time highs, auto loan delinquencies and, next up, we will be seeing mortgage delinquencies.

People stop paying their credit cards first, then their auto loans and stop paying on their homes last.

As the layoffs accelerate, and we are already seeing more high-profile layoffs at Amazon, UPS and you name it, once those begin, we will be seeing higher delinquency rates.”

Dowd sees much lower prices for homes. Dowd says,

“There is a distinct problem between homes for sale and homes sold, meaning there are a lot of people wanting to sell their homes and not a lot of people buying them.

The inventory continues to grow. . .. The only way this clears is through price. The price of homes is going lower.

We had an overbuild in multi-family housing because of the illegal immigrants. Those deals are going sour and rolling over.

Rents are coming down. . .. It’s all slowly going the wrong way, and it will become a mainstream topic in 2026.”

In past interviews, Dowd points out there was massive fraud in the Biden Administration, especially in unemployment figures.

That, too, will all be revealed. This is why Dowd pointed out last year that President Trump “Inherited a Turd of an Economy.”

What is working are precious metals, especially gold. Dowd does not see gold losing its shine anytime soon. Dowd says,

“If we get any kind of credit crisis, gold may get sold temporarily where people sell what they can, but not what they want. Long term, gold looks like it’s going to $10,000 an ounce on the charts by 2030. Everything is conspiring fundamentally and technically to lead us that way. They made gold a Tier 1 asset.

That makes gold money again in the banking system. . .. I would not get scared out of my physical gold position anytime soon.”

Dowd has new cutting-edge analysis on China for institutional investors. China is a lot weaker than anyone can imagine. Dowd says,

“Not only does China have long-term structural problems, our report identifies a very acute part of their real estate crisis, which is beginning now and accelerating into 2026. . .. China is struggling mightily. We have more bargaining chips than a lot of us think. When I hear things like ‘China holds all the cards and Trump is screwed,’ I laugh.”

There is much more in the 45-minute interview.

There is lots of free information on Dowd’s website called PhinanceTechnologies.com.

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