The Fed Admits Economic Misery Will Come Quicker Than You Think
BY DOHMEN CAPITAL RESEARCH
SATURDAY, AUG 27, 2022 – 7:41
In our last article, “The Trigger for the Next Great Depression,” we touched on how the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act may mark the beginning of the next depression here in the U.S.
As you know, the mislabeled “Inflation Reduction Act” was recently passed and signed into law. The Dems cheered, they high-fived, and back-slapped on the floor of Congress.
Little do they know that they helped to expedite our trip into economic misery and potential DEPRESSION.
It includes $739 billion of expenditures that will only boost inflation. How much is one billion? A billion hours ago, our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.
This is the opposite of what should be done. This spending bill has huge deficit spending and large hikes on the price of fuels, such as coal, etc. and a very large tax hike that will kill the economy. It even includes 87,000 armed enforcers to collect the taxes, to lower the budget deficit. It is said that small business people that represent over 90% of all US businesses will be targeted.
The Act will accelerate inflation after the mid-term elections in November.
For decades we have advised to always take the title of any bill in Congress, reverse the meaning, and you will get what it will actually do. That would mean that this bill would increase inflation significantly. Looking at the content in the bill, that seems about right.
This will eventually force global central banks to get serious about fighting soaring inflation, which means true tight money. And that causes crashes. Soft landings are fairy tales. They don’t happen.
Ahead of the election this year, we may see celebrations over declining inflation, rising jobs numbers, and decent but manipulated statistics. The celebrations will be based on misinformation.
The big question is when will the Fed finally get serious about producing “tight” money instead of just expensive money? The Fed showed the last two years that it won’t hesitate to create an all-time record $5 TRILLION of artificial money.
We believe that when the economy is clearly contracting next year in 2023, the Fed may crank up the money-producing computers again and produce another record amount of artificial money. That will only boost inflation pressures.
This is what countries like Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and others did until their currencies were not accepted anywhere.
In our latest Wellington Letter, titled “Beware of Manipulations Everywhere,” we explained how the US government can easily manipulate the inflation indicators downward by just changing the way they are calculated. They have done it a number of times before. That, and renewed QE by the Fed, may give the ruling elite a little more time to survive until the 2024 election. At least, that is their hope.
Remember, everything in government, whether on the local basis or Federal, is meant to deceive the gullible public and news media.
In the media, economists talk about the great employment numbers, not realizing that the ones advertised, the “establishment survey,” were phony.
The more accurate one, the “household survey,” is more accurate but never discussed. It was down sharply.
In fact, since March, the Establishment Survey shows a gain of 1.680 million jobs while the Household Survey shows an employment loss of 168K! Look at the huge difference.
Let’s look back on what got us to this point of soaring inflation.
Investors must realize that just before COVID, markets and the economies were at the greatest overvaluation extremes in more than 100 years, blown up by trillions of dollars of artificial currency created by the biggest central banks around the world (U.S., China, Japan, and EU countries).
In 2019, about 50% of global bonds had negative yields. That means the buyers had a guaranteed loss for every year they held them. Sounds crazy, but it happened.
In late 2019, we wrote in our research services that the probability of a serious recession was high as the markets soared upward.
The crash of March 2020 was blamed on Covid. But the market gave us the technical “sell” signals in February 2020. It was the fastest stock market crash in US history, except for 1987.
Surprisingly, the “Wuhan Virus” crisis started that month. Was the big, smart money tipped off?
That four-week market crash gave the Fed the excuse to fabricate a record amount of money.
Everything indicates to us that inflation will be allowed to rise in 2023, which in effect is the “silent tax.” True Inflation is now approaching 20% (via shadowstats.com), not the official false number of around 11%. The historic record high was in 1917 was above 19%.
We wonder if Washington realizes that high and rising inflation in the US can destroy not just the economy, but the very fabric of society, and eventually the currency. Just read some of the economic books by Hayek and Mises.
We are now all paying at least 20% more for things and consumables than one year ago. Home values have risen because of soaring rents. That means the property owners pay much more in taxes. High taxes are a great tool to destroy an economy. The new “Inflation Reduction Act” will do that.
Other actions that destroy the US economy and social system include sex changes for children, gender reorientation where little children are told they can be the opposite sex, tearing down monuments and names of buildings that celebrate the founders of the US, the millions of unvetted illegals coming across the border, including terrorists, and drug smugglers with tons of deadly Fentanyl, enough to kill every person in our big cities.
Denying that a recession is starting, the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said recently that even if there are two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, the true definition of recession, it would not be a recession if the WH doesn’t call it that.
She said they take a “holistic” view of the data.
In the US, the debt to GDP ratio is now over 100%. However, in Japan it is over 230%. That is massive. Japan has been in the virtual recession and bear market since 1990, 32 years ago. That is a long bear market.
Could we be going into a similar bear market in the US?
It is not just the US that is in big trouble, but the entire western world. China is the driving power and is now the most powerful nation. It has even injured western economies with the latest unreasonable lockdowns in China because of a few fatalities claimed to be related to Covid.
It makes no sense that a city of 26 million (Shanghai) should be locked down because of a 100 possible Covid deaths. However, such lockdowns in the major Chinese manufacturing cities deprive the west of vital parts manufactured in China that prevent the completion of cars and other machinery in the west. The lockdowns make no sense unless you realize that.
CONCLUSION:
It is highly possible that we are in WWIII right now. However, this war is being fought without bullets. It will be an intelligent economic war, which the US has no chance of winning. China already controls vital countries in Africa, as well as South America. But they have a long way to go.
And then look at the influence and investments of China in the US, with some US politicians claiming “outrage,” but doing nothing to stop it.
To read more insights and contrarian analysis like this, consider getting our award-winning Wellington Letter, now in its 46th year.
Wishing you successful investing,
Bert Dohmen
Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.
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